How I Would Line Up the L.A. Kings Next Season

Monday, June 10, 2013

How I Would Line Up the L.A. Kings Next Season

I know this is a movie blog, but occasionally I indulge my other love – hockey – specifically the L.A. Kings. The Kings won the Stanley Cup last year, but this year lost in the Conference Final. I would be more upset about this except for one thing – this playoff year, no matter how heartbreaking it was (and losing your final game in double overtime is heartbreaking in the extreme), it was still the Kings third best playoff performance in their 45 year history (I know that’s sad). Their big problem this post season was offense – specifically they didn’t get any. Here is how I would line up the Kings next season to get some. First the Forwards:

Line 1

Brown-Kopitar-Toffoli

Okay, so Brown and Kopitar did not do much offensively this post season – but both were banged up. Justin Williams has been a grinder on this line, and effective, but what Brown and Kopi really need is a sniper – Brown creates space and helps the cycle, Kopi cycles with the best and is a great setup man – but they’ve never had that natural sniper to go with them. Toffoli can be that guy for them next season – and has proven he has what it takes.

Line 2

Pearson-Carter-Williams

This is certainly a chance – but I like it. Carter skated much better at center this post season than on the wing – leave him there. Williams can be your grinder – the guy who keeps the play alive. Rookie Tanner Pearson is a natural set-up man with great hands. Playing him alongside two vets will help him – and should get him some points.

Line 3

?-Richards-Vey

The big problem with the Kings this post season was no depth scoring. So why not do that by moving Richards to the third line? In all honesty, I’d give approximately the same minutes to all of the top three lines – and it will make it harder on the opposition to have more to cover. Vey has been good in the AHL – and is entering the last year of his entry level deal. It’s time to see what he can do. Although he has played at center there, he can also play RW. And the Kings are set at center, so he’ll have to be a winger to stay in the lineup. What I don’t know is who will play LW. I hope the Kings go out and get a third liner with some scoring touch – because no one else in the lineup has that. If not, expect to see Clifford or King there.

Line 4

Clifford-Lewis-King/Nolan

Kyle Clifford may well be your long term solution for third line left wing – but he’s not there yet. So for now, let him continue to develop and have him bang and crash on the fourth line. Lewis is a great checker and penalty killer – but has virtually no scoring touch. He played well at center when Stoll was out – so let him be the fourth line guy who can move up in the case of injury. As for the right side – I’d give King and Nolan a chance to battle it out. They both looked secure after great playoffs last year – but this year and in the playoffs, they did nothing. Long term, they’re both not going to be here.

Extra

Fraser, King/Nolan

Colin Fraser is a very useful piece to have in your back pocket in case of injury – if that happens, Lewis moves up, Fraser draws in, and you’re okay. The other extra is either King or Nolan, whoever Sutter hates most that day.

Who Does That Leave Out?

Dustin Penner, Brad Richardson, Jarret Stoll.

Penner is a free agent, and with the cap falling, the Kings don’t have room for a guy who only scored twice in the shortened regular season, no matter how big of a beast he often is in the playoffs. I’ll miss him. Brad Richardson is also a free agent, and you have to think he’ll look elsewhere – he spends weeks at a time as healthy scratch, but on many teams in the NHL, he’d be a regular fourth liner. The Kings obviously don’t care about his long term career – so he’ll leave.

The difficult one is Stoll. Sutter loves him, and he is a decent third line, checking center. However, the Kings have Kopitar, Carter and Richards, and when they put Stoll on the third line, he generates no offense. The Kings need depth offense, so Stoll should be traded. He’s got an affordable deal, and many teams would love to have him as a third liner. He isn’t going to bring a top prospect or pick or anything, but he should fetch a solid return.

Defense

Doughty-Muzzin

Voynov-Regher

Martinez-Greene

Extra

Ellerby

When paired with Doughty, Muzzin got more points and opportunities. The reason is simple – teams key on Doughty, opening up Muzzin. When Regher was one with Doughty, they still keyed on Drew, but Regher didn’t make them pay. Muzzin’s defensive game should improve, and until then, Doughty is good enough on both ends to make up for it.

This does mean that the Kings’ other great defenseman, Voynov, is stuck with Regher. But Regher should be solid enough to let Voynov jump into the play, which is where he’s at his best. This should be a solid second pairing, even if I still wonder why the hell Lombardi thought the Kings needed Regher in the first place – let alone the extension they gave him.

Martinez and Greene were great on the cup run last year. Without Greene, Martinez struggled. But as long as Greene is healthy, I want to see this pairing together again.

As for Ellerby, he’s fine as a 7^th d-man who never gets played. The Kings may well look to add another defenseman instead – either on the free agent market or as part of a trade for Stoll or Bernier – in which case, Martinez may also be moved, and Ellerby could still be your 7^thman – unless they let him go, and hold onto Martinez. I’m not sure anyone in Manchester is ready for the big time yet.

Who Does This Leave Out?

Rob Scuderi, Willie Mitchell.

I would LOVE to have both of these guys in the Kings lineup next year – I just don’t see it happening. Mitchell missed the entire season this year with knee problems – and the prognosis isn’t good. I think his career is over – so most likely, the Kings will place him on LTIR for the last year of his contract to get him off the cap. As for Scuds – I think the man wants to be PAID. He has been a key piece in two of the last five cup teams (Pittsburgh and L.A.), and is still more than capable of being a top shutdown guy. If the Kings were willing to meet his contract demands, they would have already done so. I think, sadly, it’s so long Scuds!

Goalies

Quick/?

Next season will be the first of Quick’s long, expensive 10 year extension. The way he played in the playoffs this year, no one should be that worried. As for Bernier, I think his time is done. He wanted out last year, but was still under contract, so really had no power. Now, he’s RFA (and I think has arbitration rights), so he has slightly more power than last year, but not much. Still with the cap coming down, and Bernier due a raise, I think they have to trade him. That either means calling up one of the Manchester goalies, or ideally, picking up a cheap vet on the free agent market.

What will they get for Bernier? No idea. The goalie market will be flooded this summer with the likes of Backstrom and Smith as UFA, Luongo and Miller on the trade block, and possible buyouts for Fleury and Bryzgalov – not to mention the usual array of veteran backups.

However, there is lots of team who could use goalie help. Off the top of my head I think of Phoenix, Minnesota, Calgary, Edmonton, Colorado, St. Louis, Toronto, Buffalo, Washington, Florida, Winnipeg, Philly, Pittsburgh, New York Islanders and New Jersey. They could all want an upgrade of some sort in net, but some don’t want it enough, and some will want the vets. Still, there are a number of teams on this list who may well want a young guy like Bernier. They should get a decent return for him.

Will Any of This Happen?

Undoubtedly, some of it will. I don’t see how they can bring back Penner, or a situation that Scuderi comes back unless he takes a “hometown discount”, or why Richardson would want to come back. They may try to hold onto Bernier another year to give the goalies in Manchester time to be ready to be a backup, but that may not be an option. Toffoli is assured a spot in the lineup next year.

I wonder if they’ll deal Stoll. To me, it’s time to move on – let the youngsters Toffoli, Pearson and Vey have their shot at the NHL level while they’re still on Entry Level Deals, which will help with the reduced cap next season, and see precisely what they have. They don’t want any of them leaving for Europe like Moller and Holloway did, or keep them so long they either have to deal them for next to nothing (Loktionov) or lose them via waivers (Hickey). They’re not there yet – but it won’t be long before they are. Plus, if you look at it, the Kings strength is down the middle – Kopitar, Cater, Richardson, Vey, Lewis and Fraser can all play center. What they may want is another veteran shutdown defenseman – something Stoll could bring in a trade.

What did the Kings in during the playoffs is simple – when Kopitar and Brown played hurt, they didn’t produce enough offense. Carter, Richards, Toffoli and Voynov stepped up admirably, but it wasn’t enough. They need depth scoring – and pretending you’re going to get it with any consistency with King, Lewis, Clifford, Stoll, Fraser and Nolan as your bottom six just isn’t working anymore. Let the kids with offensive upside have a shot at it.

But Lombardi, as is his way, will undoubtedly due what he wants to do, regardless of what I think. And that’s a good thing. I haven’t always agreed with him, but his maneuvers led the Kings to a Cup and a berth in the Conference finals – unquestionably the best post season team in the NHL over the past two years (they won six series – no one else has even won 5). I trust Lombardi to do what needs to be done – even if it isn’t precisely what I would do.

Round One Playoff Predictions

Monday, April 9, 2012

Round One Playoff Predictions

I haven’t written much about the NHL this season, but I have been following it closer than ever before. So once again, the playoffs our upon us, and my beloved LA Kings have not made it easy on themselves, by losing their final two games against San Jose so that they have to face off against the President’s trophy winning Vancouver Canucks. Oh well. Here is how I see each series breaking down.

Western Conference

1)      Vancouver vs. 8) Los Angeles
Personally, I do not believe that this Vancouver team is as good as the one they had last season – and it will be worse if Daniel Sedin does not come back as expected. The Sedins and Kesler have not been as dominant as they have in the past, and you never know what Luongo you are going to get. You also wonder if having had a long playoff run last year if they are going to start wearing down at some point. Still, you don’t win the President’s Trophy unless you are a great team – they are the one team that knows that if they don’t win the Cup, it will be viewed as a failure. As for LA, they have been much better since the Jeff Carter trade. They underachieved much of the year, but they are still one of the very best defensive teams in the league, and in Jonathan Quick, they SHOULD have the Vezina trophy winner. If the Kings have learned from their last two quick playoff exits, they could upset the heavy favorites in Vancouver. 
Prediction:Los Angeles in 7. I am NEVER NOT going to pick the Kings to win. I honestly believe this is going to be a long series, and that LA could easily pull off a HUGE upset.

2)      St. Louis vs. 7) San Jose
I have to wonder if this season has been too much too soon for the St. Louis Blues. They haven’t made the playoffs in a few years, and then this year everything came together and they had a great regular season. But do they have enough experience to actually compete for the Stanley Cup? They are the best defensive team in the league, and have two great goalies if one falters. They are also hard to check, because they have offense by committee. As for the Sharks, this was a disappointing season for them, but they do have a lot of playoff experience. I do have to question the goaltending, as Anttii Niemi has had an up and down season, and they are not great defensively. They can be great offensively though. They also have to answer the bell that this team is not too old to compete lest they be blown up.
Prediction:St. Louis in 6. St. Louis may be inexperienced, but I normally take defense over offense in the playoffs, so I’m taking St. Louis this round.

3)      Phoenix vs. 6) Chicago
Phoenix won the booby prize of being the best team in the Pacific division which was weaker than most years this time. They have a hard working team, lead up front by two great veterans in Shane Doan and Ray Whitney, on the back end by one of the best, most under rated d-men in the game in Keith Yandle, and have amazing goaltending by Mike Smith. The Blackhawks on the other hand have more depth than last year, but you do have to wonder how good they can be if Jonathan Toews cannot come back. Still, they have responded well in his absence, and with Duncan Keith they have depth, with or without Toews.
Prediction:Chicago in 5. Chicago has too much depth for the Coyotes, who have not been able to overcome the first round hump in the previous two years. If the Coyotes are to win this one, they need Mike Smith to steal it – and I don’t think he’ll do it.

4)      Nashville vs. 5) Detroit
Nashville may well be the quietest Cup contenders this year – no matter how well they do, they never seem to get much respect. They added depth on defense with Hal Gill, to go along with two of the very best in the league in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. In Pekka Rinne, they have one of the best goalies in the league. With Radulov, they have added a legitimate scoring star. As for Detroit, they are always a threat. Although many of their best players – Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Lidstrom – are getting older, and you do have to wonder if Jimmy Howard can backstop them to a deep playoff run. This is going to be a death match, with the victor being a legit threat to win the Western conference.
Prediction:Nashville in 7. It’s going to be tight, but I think Nashville has the defensive depth to get this done.

Eastern Conference

1)      New York Rangers vs. 8) Ottawa
The Rangers had a great season, really coming through defensively, and especially in net with Henrik Lundqvist, and just enough offense to win, with Brad Richards and Marion Gaborik finding instant chemistry together. They may not be the most exciting team in the gang, but they play a solid team game, and have few holes in their lineup. As for Ottawa, their complete rebuild that they started last year is WAY ahead of schedule. They have more offense than the Rangers with the likes of Spezza, Michalek, Alfredson and d-man scoring leader Eric Karlsson. But they have less overall depth, and counting on the inconsistent Craig Anderson in net may well be their downfall.
Prediction:New York in 5. The Rangers simply have too much depth to be beaten by the Sens this year.

2)      Boston vs. 7) Washington
The Bruins may not be quite as good as last year, but they still know how to win. Zdeno Chara can be the most dominant player in any series, and can shut down nearly any forward, so good luck Ovechkin. Though Tim Thomas is certainly not as amazing as he was last year – not to mention the fact that he let his batshit crazy side out this year – he still has the ability to be dominant. Up front, they have enough depth to make up for the fact that they do not have any real offensive superstars. As for Washington, they should have been much better than 7^th this year, but for some reason, they never really came together this year. They seem like a team of individuals more than a cohesive unit. Alex Ovechkin can still be one of the best in the game – as he proved down the stretch this season. As a team though, they just do not have the depth.
Prediction:Boston in 6.The playoffs are about heart – the Bruins have it, the Caps don’t.

3)      Florida vs. 6) New Jersey
The Florida Panthers were one of the great stories of the regular season this year, ending the longest current playoff drought at 10 years (sorry Toronto, that honor now belongs to you). They did it with a team effort – no real stars, but a team that gets the job done, and relying on a resurgent Jose Theodore in net. They went to more overtime and shootouts than any other team in the league in this year, which means they can keep things close. As for New Jersey, after a disappointing season last year, they responded well this year – Kovulchuk has never been better, Zach Parise came back with a strong year after being injured last year, and Adam Henrique was one of the best rookies of the year. Martin Brodeur may be in the twilight of his career, but he can still pull out some great performances.
Prediction:New Jersey in 6. There is no shootout in the playoffs, so Florida probably doesn’t stand much of a chance of winning this one.

4)      Pittsburgh vs. 5) Philadelphia
Undoubtedly the marquee matchup of the first round, these two teams quite simply hate each other. For Pittsburgh, with the MVP of the league in Malkin and a great Crosby back, they are going to score a lot of goals. They are also deeper up front than ever before – with Sullivan, Neal, Staal, Kunitz, etc. On the defensive end, they are solid, especially Kris Letang if he can stay healthy. And they have one of the best goalies in the league in Fleury, who knows what it takes to win. For Philly, they are bigger and tougher up front than ever before. Claude Giroux is as good as any center in the league, and add in players like Simmonds, Hartnell, Jagr, Reade, Schenn, etc and they can keep pace with the Pens up front. On defense, they have a huge hole without Pronger, but they have gotten the job done. The real question mark is crazy Ilya Bryzgalov, who can be amazing or horrible depending on the night.
Prediction: Pittsburgh in 7. It`s going to be tough, and whoever wins this one will most likely be my pick to win the whole Conference, but I think the Pens have the skill and depth to win.